AI Might Crack Bitcoin's Signatures Before Quantum Computers Do

iEXExchanger
AI Might Crack Bitcoin's Signatures Before Quantum Computers Do

Ethereum researcher Justin Drake wants holders to start moving funds to fresh addresses, warning AI math could crack Bitcoin's signatures in months. Vitalik Buterin agrees the risk exists, but says don't panic.

A post from Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake pulled in nearly 4 million views this week, and it wasn't about price. Drake is telling the industry to start preparing for what he calls "bunker mode" — a slow, careful migration of bitcoin and ether to fresh addresses whose public keys have never touched the blockchain. The trigger isn't the usual quantum-computing scare. It's artificial intelligence.

Drake points to 722 math results OpenAI recently published as proof that assumptions long treated as safe are starting to crumble. His worst-case read: the elliptic curve signatures securing bitcoin and ether wallets could fall "in months, not years," with a private key recoverable from a public one in about a week on a large GPU cluster. The addresses most exposed right now are roughly 20,000 early wallets tied to Satoshi Nakamoto, each holding 50 BTC mined in the network's first months, all with public keys long since exposed on-chain.

Vitalik Buterin isn't dismissing the warning — the Ethereum Foundation already runs a dedicated post-quantum security team. But he's telling holders not to rush their own migrations, recalling that he lost funds himself in a botched move years ago. He added an uncomfortable twist of his own: even lattice-based cryptography, the stuff billed as quantum-proof, could "take serious hits from the next two years of AI math." Not everyone buys the premise — Jan3's Samson Mow called the whole scenario overblown.

Bitcoin slid from near $86,600 on Tuesday to around $82,300–$82,800, with the CoinDesk 100 down close to 2% over 24 hours — though rising bond yields and a jump in oil prices did their share of damage too. Algorand, marketed as quantum-resistant, jumped 9%. Zcash, a privacy coin, dropped 6%.

Nothing here proves AI can already break ECDSA — this is one researcher's worst-case estimate, cautiously echoed by another. What it does show is that exchanges and wallet providers are now debating a rebuild of fund security on a timeline measured in months, not the decade-plus runway the industry assumed it had for quantum risk alone.

Questions and answers

Frequently asked questions about this article

What is 'bunker mode' in crypto?

It's Justin Drake's proposal to gradually move bitcoin and ether to fresh addresses whose public key has never appeared on-chain, reducing exposure to a potential ECDSA break.

Can AI already break Bitcoin's encryption?

No evidence of that exists. Drake describes a worst-case scenario — a break 'in months, not years' — based on AI's progress in math, not a confirmed event.

Which bitcoin addresses are most at risk right now?

Roughly 20,000 early addresses linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, each holding 50 BTC, with public keys that have long been exposed on the blockchain.

How did Vitalik Buterin respond to the warning?

He called the risk real but urged holders not to rush their migrations, recalling his own losses from a botched move. He also noted lattice-based cryptography could be hit by AI progress too.